SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Port win with a probability of 49.25%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 26.71% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Port win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.55%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 (6.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Shanghai Port in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Shanghai Port.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shanghai Port |
26.71% ( -0.07) | 24.04% ( -0.3) | 49.25% ( 0.36) |
| Both teams to score 56.51% ( 0.94) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.72% ( 1.27) | 45.28% ( -1.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.38% ( 1.2) | 67.62% ( -1.2) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.31% ( 0.61) | 30.68% ( -0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.06% ( 0.72) | 66.93% ( -0.72) |
| Shanghai Port Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.53% ( 0.64) | 18.47% ( -0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.33% ( 1.07) | 49.66% ( -1.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shanghai Port |
| 1-0 @ 6.7% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 6.68% ( 0)2-0 @ 3.96% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.97% Total : 26.71% | 1-1 @ 11.3% ( -0.19) 0-0 @ 5.67% ( -0.31)2-2 @ 5.64% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.03% | 0-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.33) 1-2 @ 9.55% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 8.08% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 5.38% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 4.55% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.18% ( 0.13)1-4 @ 2.27% ( 0.1)0-4 @ 1.92% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.4% Total : 49.25% |
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