SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 48.82%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 28.81% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.98%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Southampton win was 2-1 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Southampton | Draw | Newcastle United |
28.81% ( 0.09) | 22.38% ( 0.02) | 48.82% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 64.13% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.01% ( -0.02) | 35.99% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.91% ( -0.03) | 58.09% ( 0.02) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.57% ( 0.05) | 24.43% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.14% ( 0.07) | 58.86% ( -0.07) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.87% ( -0.05) | 15.13% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 56.29% ( -0.09) | 43.71% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Southampton | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 2-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.21% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 3.67% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.26% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.08% ( 0)Other @ 2.7% Total : 28.81% | 1-1 @ 9.84% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.55% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.7% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.94% ( 0)Other @ 0.36% Total : 22.38% | 1-2 @ 9.29% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.98% ( -0)0-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 5.85% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.15% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 4.12% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.76% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.96% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.95% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)3-4 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 3.22% Total : 48.82% |
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