SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 46.94%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 28.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.37%) and 0-2 (7.83%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-0 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Southampton | Draw | Newcastle United |
28.39% ( 0.55) | 24.66% ( 0.32) | 46.94% ( -0.87) |
| Both teams to score 55.77% ( -0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.12% ( -1.07) | 46.87% ( 1.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.87% ( -1) | 69.12% ( 1.01) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.74% ( -0.15) | 30.25% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.57% ( -0.18) | 66.42% ( 0.18) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.96% ( -0.79) | 20.04% ( 0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.75% ( -1.28) | 52.25% ( 1.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Southampton | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 1-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.29) 2-1 @ 6.96% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 4.33% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 2.78% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.73% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.12% Total : 28.39% | 1-1 @ 11.65% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 6.06% ( 0.27)2-2 @ 5.6% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.66% | 0-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 9.37% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 7.83% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 5.02% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 4.2% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 3% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 2.02% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.09)2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.87% Total : 46.94% |
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