Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 58.1%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 19.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Southampton win it was 0-1 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
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