SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 66.77%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 13.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.44%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (4.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arouca |
66.77% ( 0.13) | 20.07% ( 0.3) | 13.16% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 46.41% ( -2.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.78% ( -2.22) | 47.22% ( 2.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.55% ( -2.1) | 69.45% ( 2.1) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.77% ( -0.63) | 13.23% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.02% ( -1.3) | 39.98% ( 1.3) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.49% ( -2.04) | 46.51% ( 2.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.88% ( -1.61) | 82.12% ( 1.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arouca |
| 2-0 @ 12.58% ( 0.56) 1-0 @ 12.44% ( 0.84)2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 6.5% ( -0.23)4-0 @ 4.29% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.24)5-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.15)Other @ 2.73% Total : 66.76% | 1-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.55)2-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.26)Other @ 0.7% Total : 20.07% | 0-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.14% Total : 13.16% |
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