SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 58.12%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 22.52% and a draw had a probability of 19.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.07%) and 2-0 (6.3%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (5.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Benfica |
58.12% ( 0.02) | 19.35% ( 0) | 22.52% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 68.83% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.85% ( -0.02) | 27.15% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.32% ( -0.03) | 47.67% ( 0.03) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.5% ( -0) | 9.49% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.15% ( -0.01) | 31.84% ( 0) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.05% ( -0.02) | 23.94% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.82% ( -0.03) | 58.17% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Benfica |
| 2-1 @ 9.01% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.07% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.3% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 5.05% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.95% ( 0)4-1 @ 4.16% 4-2 @ 2.98% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.91% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.96% 4-3 @ 1.42% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.4% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.37% ( 0)Other @ 4.2% Total : 58.12% | 1-1 @ 7.65% ( 0) 2-2 @ 6.44% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.41% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.27% ( 0)Other @ 0.58% Total : 19.35% | 1-2 @ 5.47% 0-1 @ 3.25% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.07% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.61% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.32% 0-3 @ 1.11% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.1% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 2.68% Total : 22.52% |
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