Momentum and pedigree favour Sporting, while Tondela brace for a last stand. We predict the underdogs' cup adventure ends at the Estadio Jose Alvalade. The hosts will have too much for the visitors to handle in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 78.2%. A draw had a probability of 14.1% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 7.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.89%) and 1-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.72%), while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (2.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
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