Saturday's game sees two sides at opposite ends of the table go head to head with Sporting Lisbon being the clearly superior side. While Tondela will look to build on their win over Maritimo, they face the Leoes, who have won each of their last four encounters. Looking at the gulf in quality and experience between the two sides, and their contrasting form, we are backing Sporting Lisbon to come away with all three points unscathed.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 61.11%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 18.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.74%) and 0-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Tondela win it was 2-1 (4.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
