SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 54.91%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 22.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| St Pauli | Draw | Mainz 05 |
54.91% ( -0.18) | 22.62% ( 0.02) | 22.47% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 56.61% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.01% ( 0.12) | 42.98% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.61% ( 0.12) | 65.39% ( -0.12) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.44% ( -0.02) | 15.56% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.49% ( -0.03) | 44.51% ( 0.03) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.04% ( 0.21) | 32.96% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.46% ( 0.23) | 69.54% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Pauli | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.54% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 6.11% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.39% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.84% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.56% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0)5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.65% Total : 54.91% | 1-1 @ 10.59% 2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 5.13% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.62% | 1-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 5.69% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.18% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.38% Total : 22.47% |
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