SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 41.84%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Stoke City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Stoke City.
| Result | ||
| Stoke City | Draw | Derby County |
41.84% ( 0.22) | 25.45% ( 0.09) | 32.71% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 55.4% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.64% ( -0.5) | 48.36% ( 0.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.5% ( -0.46) | 70.5% ( 0.45) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.01% ( -0.11) | 22.98% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.22% ( -0.16) | 56.78% ( 0.15) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.93% ( -0.44) | 28.06% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.28% ( -0.56) | 63.72% ( 0.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Stoke City | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 9.48% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.97% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 4.34% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.6% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.14% Total : 41.84% | 1-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.44% | 0-1 @ 8.2% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 7.66% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.24% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.79% Total : 32.71% |
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