Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elgin City win with a probability of 38.01%. A win for Stranraer had a probability of 37.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Elgin City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.74%) and 0-2 (5.74%). The likeliest Stranraer win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
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