SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 52.12%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 23.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.45%), while for a Oxford United win it was 0-1 (6.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sunderland | Draw | Oxford United |
52.12% ( -0.2) | 24.11% ( 0.06) | 23.77% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 53.3% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.86% ( -0.12) | 48.13% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.71% ( -0.11) | 70.29% ( 0.11) |
| Sunderland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.55% ( -0.12) | 18.44% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.38% ( -0.2) | 49.62% ( 0.21) |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.36% ( 0.06) | 34.64% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.63% ( 0.07) | 71.36% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sunderland | Draw | Oxford United |
| 1-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 9.13% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 5.14% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.3% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.17% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.32% Total : 52.12% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.13% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.11% | 0-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.07% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.81% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.11% Total : 23.77% |
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