Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 38.69%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 35.07% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
0.17) 
-0.17) 
