Ternana's last four home games have witnessed not more than one goal — 1-0 wins over Cozenza and Catanzaro either side of a goalless game with Modena and a 1-0 loss to Ascoli — and a similar outcome is expected on Thursday, with the hosts just about edging Bari to retain their Serie B status.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bari win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 33.27% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bari win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.08%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Ternana win was 1-0 (10.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bari would win this match.
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