SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 65.61%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 15.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.46%) and 1-0 (8.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.53%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 1-2 (4.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toluca | Draw | Chicago Fire |
65.61% ( -0.29) | 18.71% ( 0.12) | 15.68% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 57.84% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.49% ( -0.28) | 35.5% ( 0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.44% ( -0.31) | 57.55% ( 0.3) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.87% ( -0.15) | 10.12% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.68% ( -0.34) | 33.31% ( 0.33) |
| Chicago Fire Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.35% ( 0.02) | 35.64% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.58% ( 0.02) | 72.41% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toluca | Draw | Chicago Fire |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 9.46% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 8.26% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 7.45% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 7.22% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 4.27% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.96% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.03)5-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 4.13% Total : 65.61% | 1-1 @ 8.53% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0)Other @ 0.21% Total : 18.71% | 1-2 @ 4.4% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.72% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.39% Total : 15.68% |
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