SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 53.71%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 23.91% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.62%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chicago Fire | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
53.71% ( 0.21) | 22.38% ( 0) | 23.91% ( -0.2) |
| Both teams to score 59.26% ( -0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.67% ( -0.24) | 40.33% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.3% ( -0.24) | 62.71% ( 0.25) |
| Chicago Fire Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.97% ( -0.01) | 15.03% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.48% ( -0.03) | 43.52% ( 0.03) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.74% ( -0.3) | 30.26% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.57% ( -0.36) | 66.44% ( 0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chicago Fire | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.62% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.92% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.11% 5-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.01% Total : 53.71% | 1-1 @ 10.3% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.38% | 1-2 @ 6.16% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.99% Total : 23.91% |
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