Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 51.15%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 19.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.48%) and 2-1 (8.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.49%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (9.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Union in this match.

Result
Union	Draw	Sarmiento
51.15% ( -0.05)	28.89% ( -0.05)	19.96% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 36.62% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

32.4% (

0.2)

67.59% (

-0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

14.33% (

0.13)

85.66% (

-0.13)

Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.87% (

0.07)

27.13% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.48% (

0.09)

62.52% (

-0.09)

Sarmiento Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.25% (

0.23)

49.75% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.51% (

0.16)

84.48% (

-0.16)

Score Analysis

Union 51.13%

Sarmiento 19.96%

Draw 28.88%

Union	Draw	Sarmiento
1-0 @ 17.6% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 11.48% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.02% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 5% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.49% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.57% Total : 51.13%	0-0 @ 13.49% ( -0.1) 1-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.3% Total : 28.88%	0-1 @ 9.42% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.29% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.96% Total : 19.96%