SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 58.48%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 16.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.51%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Sarmiento |
58.48% ( -0.44) | 24.78% ( 0.67) | 16.74% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 41.29% ( -2.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.28% ( -2.61) | 58.72% ( 2.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.75% ( -2.07) | 79.25% ( 2.07) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.95% ( -1.18) | 20.05% ( 1.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.73% ( -1.92) | 52.27% ( 1.92) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.64% ( -1.86) | 48.36% ( 1.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.51% ( -1.39) | 83.49% ( 1.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 15.58% ( 0.95) 2-0 @ 12.51% ( 0.31)2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.25)3-0 @ 6.71% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 4.87% ( -0.32)4-0 @ 2.69% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 1.96% ( -0.21)3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.22)Other @ 3.29% Total : 58.47% | 1-1 @ 11.32% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 9.7% ( 0.92)2-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.27)Other @ 0.46% Total : 24.78% | 0-1 @ 7.04% ( 0.32) 1-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.03% Total : 16.74% |
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