Though Parma are more potent than their hosts up front, they have consistently paid for some costly slip-ups, losing seven points from leading positions away from home.
For all their flaws, Venezia are yet to drop points from in front at Stadio Penzo, and they should at least secure a home draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezia win with a probability of 44.25%. A win for Parma had a probability of 30.8% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
-0.13) 
0.03) 
