SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 37.59%. A win for Ecuador had a probability of 31.78% and a draw had a probability of 30.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.53%) and 2-1 (7.18%). The likeliest Ecuador win was 0-1 (12.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Venezuela | Draw | Ecuador |
37.59% ( 1.84) | 30.63% ( 0.08) | 31.78% ( -1.91) |
| Both teams to score 40.23% ( -0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.79% ( -0.39) | 67.22% ( 0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.59% ( -0.26) | 85.41% ( 0.27) |
| Venezuela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.5% ( 1) | 34.51% ( -0.99) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.78% ( 1.05) | 71.22% ( -1.04) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.43% ( -1.63) | 38.57% ( 1.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.69% ( -1.59) | 75.32% ( 1.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Venezuela | Draw | Ecuador |
| 1-0 @ 14.16% ( 0.58) 2-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.5)2-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.18)3-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 2.55% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.29% Total : 37.59% | 1-1 @ 13.49% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 13.3% ( 0.19)2-2 @ 3.42% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.41% Total : 30.62% | 0-1 @ 12.68% ( -0.38) 1-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.31)0-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.46)1-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.2)0-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.24)2-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.59% Total : 31.78% |
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