Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 53.67%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 24.54% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.62%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.