Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Vitoria had a probability of 32.65% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.27%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Vitoria win was 1-0 (10.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Vasco da Gama in this match.
-0.17) 
0.03) 
