Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 58.05%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 22.03% and a draw had a probability of 19.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.04%) and 3-1 (7.02%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (5.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
