Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 50.86%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 24.83% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.61%) and 0-2 (8.83%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-0 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.12) 
