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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Wellington Phoenix in this match.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
46.07% ( -0.13) | 23.85% ( 0.13) | 30.08% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 59.67% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.76% ( -0.59) | 42.24% ( 0.59) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.35% ( -0.59) | 64.64% ( 0.59) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.44% ( -0.29) | 18.55% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.19% ( -0.49) | 49.8% ( 0.49) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.26% ( -0.29) | 26.74% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.98% ( -0.38) | 62.01% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 9.29% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 5.21% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 3.95% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.44% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.2% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.67% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.47% Total : 46.07% | 1-1 @ 11.02% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 4.96% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.85% | 1-2 @ 7.27% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.54% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 4.32% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.69% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.9% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.11% Total : 30.08% |
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