SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 53.8%. A win for Western United had a probability of 24.11% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.16%) and 0-2 (7.9%). The likeliest Western United win was 2-1 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
24.11% ( -0.02) | 22.08% ( 0.1) | 53.8% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 60.57% ( -0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.3% ( -0.52) | 38.69% ( 0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39% ( -0.55) | 61% ( 0.55) |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.79% ( -0.3) | 29.2% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.85% ( -0.37) | 65.15% ( 0.36) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.56% ( -0.21) | 14.43% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.62% ( -0.41) | 42.37% ( 0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Western United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 6.18% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.19% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 3.19% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 2.54% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.31% Other @ 3.25% Total : 24.11% | 1-1 @ 10.04% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.08% | 1-2 @ 9.72% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 7.9% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 6.27% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 5.09% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.86% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 3.03% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.87% ( -0.04)1-5 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)0-5 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.31% Total : 53.8% |
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