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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 39.79%. A win for York City had a probability of 34.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.64%) and 0-2 (6.46%). The likeliest York City win was 1-0 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hartlepool United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| York City | Draw | Hartlepool United |
34.88% ( 0.26) | 25.32% ( 0.06) | 39.79% ( -0.33) |
| Both teams to score 56.39% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.67% ( -0.25) | 47.33% ( 0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.44% ( -0.23) | 69.55% ( 0.22) |
| York City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.76% ( 0.04) | 26.24% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.65% ( 0.05) | 61.34% ( -0.06) |
| Hartlepool United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.44% ( -0.28) | 23.55% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.39% ( -0.4) | 57.61% ( 0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| York City | Draw | Hartlepool United |
| 1-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 8% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.28% Total : 34.88% | 1-1 @ 11.95% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.32% | 0-1 @ 8.94% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.64% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 4.17% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 1.13% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.05% Total : 39.79% |
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