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AU
Major League Soccer
Jul 18, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
NY

Atlanta
2 - 2
NY City

Rios (1'), Lobzhanidze (38')
Muyumba (61'), Lennon (86'), Brennan (90+5')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Bakrar (65'), Magno (82' pen.)
Haak (77')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Montreal 1-0 Atlanta
Sunday, July 14 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Chicago Fire 0-0 NY City
Sunday, July 14 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Atlanta United 1-1 New York City FC

The last three times these sides have met, it has ended in a draw and given how well they each know each other, we do not see a distinct advantage for one side over the other on Wednesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 51.45%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 25.53% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.77%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Atlanta UnitedDrawNew York City FC
51.45% (0.045000000000002 0.05) 23.01% (-0.071999999999999 -0.07) 25.53% (0.026 0.03)
Both teams to score 58.89% (0.278 0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.37% (0.35599999999999 0.36)41.63% (-0.354 -0.35)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.97% (0.35700000000001 0.36)64.03% (-0.35600000000001 -0.36)
Atlanta United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.73% (0.14700000000001 0.15)16.28% (-0.145 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.18% (0.266 0.27)45.82% (-0.264 -0.26)
New York City FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.34% (0.20999999999999 0.21)29.67% (-0.208 -0.21)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.29% (0.255 0.26)65.71% (-0.253 -0.25)
Score Analysis
    Atlanta United 51.45%
    New York City FC 25.54%
    Draw 23.01%
Atlanta UnitedDrawNew York City FC
2-1 @ 9.67% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-0 @ 8.77% (-0.097 -0.1)
2-0 @ 7.96% (-0.048000000000001 -0.05)
3-1 @ 5.85% (0.027 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.82% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-2 @ 3.56% (0.037 0.04)
4-1 @ 2.66% (0.025 0.03)
4-0 @ 2.19% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.61% (0.025 0.03)
5-1 @ 0.97% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 3.42%
Total : 51.45%
1-1 @ 10.65% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
2-2 @ 5.88% (0.032 0.03)
0-0 @ 4.83% (-0.077 -0.08)
3-3 @ 1.44% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 23.01%
1-2 @ 6.47% (0.0040000000000004 0)
0-1 @ 5.87% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-2 @ 3.56% (-0.016 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.62% (0.016 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.38% (0.027 0.03)
0-3 @ 1.44% (0.002 0)
Other @ 3.19%
Total : 25.54%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Montreal 1-0 Atlanta
Sunday, July 14 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Salt Lake 5-2 Atlanta
Sunday, July 7 at 2.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: New England 2-1 Atlanta
Thursday, July 4 at 12.45am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Atlanta 2-1 Toronto
Sunday, June 30 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: St Louis City 1-1 Atlanta
Sunday, June 23 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: DC United 0-1 Atlanta
Thursday, June 20 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Chicago Fire 0-0 NY City
Sunday, July 14 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Austin 2-1 NY City
Sunday, July 7 at 2.55am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY City 2-0 Montreal
Thursday, July 4 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY City 4-2 Orlando City
Saturday, June 29 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Nashville 1-0 NY City
Sunday, June 23 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: LA Galaxy 2-0 NY City
Thursday, June 20 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer


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