Liga MX | Gameweek 17
Apr 30, 2023 at 7pm UK
Estadio Nemesio Díez
Coverage of the Liga MX clash between Toluca and Necaxa.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Necaxa had a probability of 18.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.68%) and 1-0 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for a Necaxa win it was 1-2 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
| Result |
| Toluca | Draw | Necaxa |
59.9% ( -0.52) | 21.24% ( 0.09) | 18.86% ( 0.43) |
| Both teams to score 55.54% ( 0.51) |
| 58.31% ( 0.28) | 41.69% ( -0.28) |
| 35.91% ( 0.28) | 64.09% ( -0.28) |
| 86.47% ( -0.06) | 13.53% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 59.4% ( -0.13) | 40.6% ( 0.13) |
| 64.23% ( 0.63) | 35.76% ( -0.63) |
