Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlas win with a probability of 43.23%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 30% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlas win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atlas would win this match.
