Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monterrey win with a probability of 47.41%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 27.59% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monterrey win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.37%) and 0-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
