Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CD Guadalajara win with a probability of 40.76%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 32.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a CD Guadalajara win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
