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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 24
Feb 19, 2023 at 2pm UK
Stade du Moustoir
AA

Lorient
3 - 0
Ajaccio

Dieng (6' pen.), Faivre (43'), Ponceau (58')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Youssouf (28'), Vidal (49')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Nantes 1-0 Lorient
Sunday, February 12 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Nice 3-0 Ajaccio
Friday, February 10 at 8pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lorient 1-0 Ajaccio

Lorient have struggled since losing some key players in the January transfer window, but a home fixture against a struggling Ajaccio is a good opportunity to change their February fortunes. The Bears will have one eye on a crucial clash with Troyes next weekend, with a trip to Lorient a challenging fixture which we believe they will return to Ajaccio with nothing from. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 38.43%. A win for Ajaccio had a probability of 33.25% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Ajaccio win was 0-1 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.

Result
LorientDrawAjaccio
38.43% (0.044999999999995 0.04) 28.32% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02) 33.25% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
Both teams to score 46.62% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.4% (0.042000000000002 0.04)59.6% (-0.044000000000004 -0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.07% (0.032999999999998 0.03)79.93% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Lorient Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.96% (0.046999999999997 0.05)30.04% (-0.047999999999998 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.83% (0.056999999999995 0.06)66.17% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)
Ajaccio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.64%33.36% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.01% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)69.99% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Score Analysis
    Lorient 38.42%
    Ajaccio 33.25%
    Draw 28.31%
LorientDrawAjaccio
1-0 @ 12.05%
2-1 @ 7.96% (0.008 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.25% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.19% (0.008 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.91% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.75% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 0.96% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 38.42%
1-1 @ 13.23%
0-0 @ 10.02% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 4.37% (0.0039999999999996 0)
Other @ 0.7%
Total : 28.31%
0-1 @ 11% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 7.26% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-2 @ 6.04% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.66% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.21% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.6% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 33.25%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Nantes 1-0 Lorient
Sunday, February 12 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lorient 1-1 Lens (2-4 pen.)
Thursday, February 9 at 8pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Lorient 0-0 Angers
Sunday, February 5 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Reims 4-2 Lorient
Wednesday, February 1 at 6pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lorient 2-1 Rennes
Friday, January 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Bastia 1-1 Lorient (1-4 pen.)
Saturday, January 21 at 5pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Nice 3-0 Ajaccio
Friday, February 10 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Ajaccio 0-2 Nantes
Sunday, February 5 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Angers 1-2 Ajaccio
Wednesday, February 1 at 6pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Ajaccio 0-2 Lyon
Sunday, January 29 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Toulouse 2-0 Ajaccio
Saturday, January 21 at 5pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Monaco 7-1 Ajaccio
Sunday, January 15 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1


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