Marseille's home record is extremely unconvincing, but their win over Monaco in their last outing at the Velodrome suggests a corner may have been turned following some minor turmoil last month.
Lille will want to ensure they go into 2025 with their unbeaten streak still intact, but this will be one of the toughest challenges they have faced domestically this season, and could be happy to leave with a draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 37.31%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 37% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-0 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
0.03) 
-0.02) 
