Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 56.62%. A win for Lille had a probability of 22.16% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.06%) and 1-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Lille win was 1-2 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
Result | ||
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Lille |
56.62% ( 0.23) | 21.21% ( 0) | 22.16% ( -0.23) |
Both teams to score 61.13% ( -0.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.17% ( -0.31) | 36.83% ( 0.31) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.99% ( -0.34) | 59% ( 0.34) |
Paris Saint-Germain Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.06% ( -0.04) | 12.94% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.6% ( -0.07) | 39.39% ( 0.07) |
Lille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.21% ( -0.38) | 29.79% ( 0.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.14% ( -0.46) | 65.86% ( 0.45) |
Score Analysis |
Paris Saint-Germain | Draw | Lille |
2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 7.88% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 3.4% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.81% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.39% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.94% Total : 56.62% | 1-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.28% Total : 21.21% | 1-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.67% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.03% Total : 22.16% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups: