Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 61.22%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Nimes had a probability of 16.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.11%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Nimes win it was 0-1 (5.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caen would win this match.
-0.03) 
0.01) 
