Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amiens win with a probability of 35.8%. A win for Caen had a probability of 35.54% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amiens win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.55%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Caen win was 0-1 (11.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.
-0.29) 
0.03) 
