Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 33.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Saint-Etienne win was 1-2 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
0.15) 
-0.18) 
