It will be far from straightforward for Metz, but they should be able to get the job done against a good Bastia outfit who have been spoilers in recent weeks. They just need to hope Bordeaux do not thrash Rodez and promotion should be theirs. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 56.21%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 17.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.15%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Bastia win it was 0-1 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.

Result
Metz	Draw	Bastia
56.21% ( 3.92)	25.86% ( -1.21)	17.92% ( -2.71)

Both teams to score 40.62% (

-0.82)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.24% (

1.06)

60.76% (

-1.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.18% (

0.79)

80.81% (

-0.79)

Metz Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.21% (

2.14)

21.79% (

-2.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.01% (

3.17)

54.98% (

-3.17)

Bastia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

51.93% (

-2.54)

48.07% (

2.54)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

16.72% (

-1.93)

83.28% (

1.93)

Score Analysis

Metz 56.2%

Bastia 17.92%

Draw 25.86%

Metz	Draw	Bastia
1-0 @ 15.95% ( 0.37) 2-0 @ 12.15% ( 1.01) 2-1 @ 8.91% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.87) 3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.35) 4-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.46) 4-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.23) 3-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.75% Total : 56.2%	1-1 @ 11.69% ( -0.56) 0-0 @ 10.47% ( -0.42) 2-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.19) Other @ 0.43% Total : 25.86%	0-1 @ 7.67% ( -0.9) 1-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.54) 0-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.56) 1-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.22) Other @ 2.11% Total : 17.92%