SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 56.21%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.15%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Bastia win it was 0-1 (7.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Metz | Draw | Bastia |
56.21% ( 3.92) | 25.86% ( -1.21) | 17.92% ( -2.71) |
| Both teams to score 40.62% ( -0.82) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.24% ( 1.06) | 60.76% ( -1.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.18% ( 0.79) | 80.81% ( -0.79) |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.21% ( 2.14) | 21.79% ( -2.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 45.01% ( 3.17) | 54.98% ( -3.17) |
| Bastia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.93% ( -2.54) | 48.07% ( 2.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 16.72% ( -1.93) | 83.28% ( 1.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| Metz | Draw | Bastia |
| 1-0 @ 15.95% ( 0.37) 2-0 @ 12.15% ( 1.01)2-1 @ 8.91% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.87)3-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.35)4-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.46)4-1 @ 1.72% ( 0.23)3-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.75% Total : 56.2% | 1-1 @ 11.69% ( -0.56) 0-0 @ 10.47% ( -0.42)2-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.19)Other @ 0.43% Total : 25.86% | 0-1 @ 7.67% ( -0.9) 1-2 @ 4.28% ( -0.54)0-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.56)1-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.22)Other @ 2.11% Total : 17.92% |
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