Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 40.21%. A win for Metz had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Metz win was 0-1 (9.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.01) 
