Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochaux win with a probability of 43.8%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochaux win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.81%) and 2-1 (8.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.11%), while for a Bastia win it was 0-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochaux would win this match.
