Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valenciennes win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Caen had a probability of 31.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valenciennes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.15%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Caen win was 0-1 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
