On paper, DC have more individual quality than the Dynamo, although they have only shown that in small sample sizes this season, whereas Houston have been more consistent and structurally sound so far in 2022.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 52.68%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Houston Dynamo had a probability of 23.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.37%), while for a Houston Dynamo win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that DC United would win this match.
