It may have started as just a feel-good, fairy tale story, but at the moment St Louis appear to be a legitimate contender, showing consistency in the attacking third while possessing plenty of solid contributors.
Minnesota love to slow the game down to a crawl at times, and although that has kept them unbeaten, we expect the momentum and depth of St Louis will ultimately be too much for the Loons to handle.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 39.79%. A win for St Louis City had a probability of 34.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-2 (6.71%). The likeliest St Louis City win was 1-0 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Minnesota United in this match.
0.06) 
-0.07) 
