SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Real Salt Lake | 19 | 0 | 30 |
| 2 | Dallas | 19 | 7 | 28 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 18 | 3 | 27 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | New York Red Bulls | 20 | 7 | 33 |
| 3 | New York City FC | 18 | 17 | 32 |
| 4 | CF Montreal | 19 | -2 | 29 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 39.78%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 35.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.23%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dallas | Draw | New York City FC |
39.78% ( 0.18) | 24.84% ( 0.13) | 35.37% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 58.16% ( -0.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.92% ( -0.66) | 45.07% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.57% ( -0.63) | 67.42% ( 0.63) |
| Dallas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.44% ( -0.2) | 22.56% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.84% ( -0.3) | 56.15% ( 0.3) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.1% ( -0.48) | 24.9% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.49% ( -0.67) | 59.51% ( 0.67) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dallas | Draw | New York City FC |
| 2-1 @ 8.66% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 6.23% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 4.3% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.09% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.6% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.15% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.3% Total : 39.78% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 5.62% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.84% | 1-2 @ 8.09% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 7.81% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 5.43% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.75% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.72% Total : 35.37% |
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