SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a DC United win with a probability of 52.91%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 23.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a DC United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.66%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 1-2 (6.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.9%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that DC United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| DC United | Draw | Chicago Fire |
52.91% ( 0.5) | 23.22% ( -0.06) | 23.87% ( -0.44) |
| Both teams to score 56.34% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.83% ( -0.15) | 44.17% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.45% ( -0.15) | 66.55% ( 0.14) |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.32% ( 0.12) | 16.68% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.45% ( 0.22) | 46.55% ( -0.22) |
| Chicago Fire Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.61% ( -0.45) | 32.38% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.1% ( -0.51) | 68.9% ( 0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| DC United | Draw | Chicago Fire |
| 2-1 @ 9.77% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.67% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 8.66% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 5.83% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 5.17% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.61% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.32% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.47% ( -0)5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.18% Total : 52.91% | 1-1 @ 10.9% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.51% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 5.4% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.21% | 1-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.09) 0-1 @ 6.09% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.53% Total : 23.87% |
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