SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Minnesota United win with a probability of 48.02%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 29.15% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Minnesota United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.41%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Minnesota United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Minnesota United | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
48.02% ( -0.04) | 22.82% ( 0.01) | 29.15% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 62.75% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.08% ( 0) | 37.92% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.83% ( 0.01) | 60.17% ( -0.01) |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.87% ( -0.01) | 16.13% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.44% ( -0.02) | 45.56% ( 0.02) |
| Sporting Kansas City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.82% ( 0.03) | 25.18% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.1% ( 0.04) | 59.9% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Minnesota United | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 2-1 @ 9.32% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.41% ( -0)2-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.67% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.11% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.91% 4-1 @ 2.59% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.88% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.78% ( -0)5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 3.66% Total : 48.02% | 1-1 @ 10.22% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.43% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.06% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.8% ( 0)Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.82% | 1-2 @ 7.05% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.6% ( 0)0-2 @ 3.86% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.24% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.96% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.78% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.02% ( 0)Other @ 2.53% Total : 29.15% |
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