Chicago will be desperate to maintain their top seven position in the Eastern Conference, but Philly are only three points ahead of NYCFC for first, so there is just as much for them to play for at the moment. The Union have been incredibly potent, well-organised and full of confidence on home soil, all of which we believe will propel them to another victory at Subaru Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 58.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 19.56%.

The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.

Result
Philadelphia Union	Draw	Chicago Fire
58.19% ( -0.11)	22.25% ( 0.01)	19.56% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 53.41% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.88% (

0.12)

45.12% (

-0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.53% (

0.11)

67.46% (

-0.12)

Philadelphia Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.79% (

15.2% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.15% (

43.84% (

-0.01)

Chicago Fire Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.99% (

0.18)

37.01% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.2% (

0.18)

73.8% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

Philadelphia Union 58.18%

Chicago Fire 19.56%

Draw 22.24%

Philadelphia Union	Draw	Chicago Fire
1-0 @ 10.59% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 9.98% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.92% 3-0 @ 6.27% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.23% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.1% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.95% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.93% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.11% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.53% Total : 58.18%	1-1 @ 10.53% 0-0 @ 5.63% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.24%	0-1 @ 5.59% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.24% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.66% Total : 19.56%