SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 59.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 17.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.77%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.95%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
59.66% ( 0.11) | 23.22% ( -0.2) | 17.12% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 46.1% ( 0.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.36% ( 0.92) | 52.64% ( -0.92) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.71% ( 0.79) | 74.29% ( -0.78) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.67% ( 0.37) | 17.33% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.3% ( 0.65) | 47.7% ( -0.65) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.76% ( 0.68) | 44.24% ( -0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.68% ( 0.55) | 80.32% ( -0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 1-0 @ 13.43% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 11.77% ( -0.15)2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 6.88% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.61% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 3.02% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.29% ( 0.09)5-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.52% Total : 59.64% | 1-1 @ 10.95% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.67% ( -0.28)2-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.68% Total : 23.21% | 0-1 @ 6.25% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 2.55% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.57% Total : 17.12% |
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