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Major League Soccer
Sep 4, 2023 at 12.30am UK
Subaru Park
NY

Philadelphia
4 - 1
NY Red Bulls

Glesnes (29'), Lowe (57'), Carranza (58'), Gazdag (76')
Lowe (37'), McGlynn (45+5'), Bedoya (80'), Baribo (85')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Fernandez (11')
Nealis (6'), Lesesne (7'), Reyes (24')
Nealis (44')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Toronto 3-1 Philadelphia
Thursday, August 31 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: New England 1-0 NY Red Bulls
Thursday, August 31 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Philadelphia Union 2-0 New York Red Bulls

We rarely see the Union put together consecutive poor showings in MLS, and we expect to see a more determined effort from this group on Sunday. Their experience in these end of season races and overall balance should be enough to earn them another home victory against a team that have failed to find much consistency all year.

How to watch

You can watch Philadelphia Union vs. New York Red Bulls and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 59.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 17.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.77%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.95%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.

Result
Philadelphia UnionDrawNew York Red Bulls
59.66% (0.109 0.11) 23.22% (-0.205 -0.2) 17.12% (0.1 0.1)
Both teams to score 46.1% (0.768 0.77)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.36% (0.92299999999999 0.92)52.64% (-0.922 -0.92)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.71% (0.786 0.79)74.29% (-0.78399999999999 -0.78)
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.67% (0.374 0.37)17.33% (-0.372 -0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.3% (0.651 0.65)47.7% (-0.648 -0.65)
New York Red Bulls Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.76% (0.68 0.68)44.24% (-0.677 -0.68)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.68% (0.549 0.55)80.32% (-0.547 -0.55)
Score Analysis
    Philadelphia Union 59.64%
    New York Red Bulls 17.12%
    Draw 23.21%
Philadelphia UnionDrawNew York Red Bulls
1-0 @ 13.43% (-0.33 -0.33)
2-0 @ 11.77% (-0.15 -0.15)
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.064 0.06)
3-0 @ 6.88% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-1 @ 5.61% (0.105 0.11)
4-0 @ 3.02% (0.037 0.04)
4-1 @ 2.46% (0.075 0.08)
3-2 @ 2.29% (0.085 0.09)
5-0 @ 1.06% (0.025 0.02)
4-2 @ 1% (0.049 0.05)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 59.64%
1-1 @ 10.95% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-0 @ 7.67% (-0.284 -0.28)
2-2 @ 3.92% (0.099 0.1)
Other @ 0.68%
Total : 23.21%
0-1 @ 6.25% (-0.111 -0.11)
1-2 @ 4.47% (0.059 0.06)
0-2 @ 2.55% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 1.21% (0.038 0.04)
2-3 @ 1.06% (0.046 0.05)
Other @ 1.57%
Total : 17.12%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Toronto 3-1 Philadelphia
Thursday, August 31 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: DC United 1-3 Philadelphia
Sunday, August 27 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Philadelphia 2-1 NY City
Sunday, July 16 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Nashville 0-2 Philadelphia
Thursday, July 13 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: LA Galaxy 3-1 Philadelphia
Sunday, July 9 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Atlanta 2-0 Philadelphia
Sunday, July 2 at 9pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: New England 1-0 NY Red Bulls
Thursday, August 31 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY Red Bulls 0-2 Inter Miami
Sunday, August 27 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY Red Bulls 1-0 DC United
Monday, August 21 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Salt Lake 3-1 NY Red Bulls
Sunday, July 16 at 2.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY Red Bulls 1-2 Cincinnati
Thursday, July 13 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY Red Bulls 2-1 New England
Sunday, July 9 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer


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