What seems to be forgotten in everything that the Union have achieved lately is the fact that this is still perhaps the most formidable defensive unit in MLS. We believe that will make the difference against a Red Bulls side who are equally solid along the backline but might not be able to match the scoring depth of Philadelphia. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 43.64%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 29.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.

Result
New York Red Bulls	Draw	Philadelphia Union
43.64% ( 1.36)	26.85% ( -0.57)	29.5% ( -0.8)

Both teams to score 49.57% (

1.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.75% (

1.81)

55.25% (

-1.81)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.52% (

1.47)

76.48% (

-1.47)

New York Red Bulls Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.87% (

1.53)

25.13% (

-1.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.16% (

2.07)

59.83% (

-2.07)

Philadelphia Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.21% (

0.36)

33.79% (

-0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.55% (

0.39)

70.45% (

-0.39)

Score Analysis

New York Red Bulls 43.64%

Philadelphia Union 29.5%

Draw 26.85%

New York Red Bulls	Draw	Philadelphia Union
1-0 @ 11.72% ( -0.31) 2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 8.1% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 4.05% ( 0.28) 3-0 @ 3.73% ( 0.22) 3-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.17) 4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.15) 4-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.13) Other @ 2.38% Total : 43.64%	1-1 @ 12.72% ( -0.21) 0-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.61) 2-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.87% Total : 26.85%	0-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.57) 1-2 @ 6.9% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 5% ( -0.26) 1-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.36% Total : 29.5%